Evolução dos custos de fertilizantes e soja indústria - análise para região noroeste do Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

There are several factors that influence the costs of rural properties. Among variable expenses, fertilizers stand out. The Covid 19 pandemic, which began at the end of 2019, in addition to taking lives, generated uncertainty and changed production, transport and negotiations around the world, which influenced agribusiness. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war, countries that form an important region in fertilizer production, generated speculation regarding their availability. The aim is to present market changes in the period from January 2020 to May 2023 for fertilizers and industrial soybeans, focusing on the northwest region of Rio Grande do Sul, a period that coincides with the Covid 19 pandemic and the war in Russia- Ukraine. Carry out comparative research on fertilizer costs, including Chlorinated Urea, Urea, Map and Potassium Chloride, aiming to understand how much of an increase occurred in the period on properties in the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul, through sales data from a company located in the region northwest relating to the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA). Evaluate the variation in the selling price of industrial soybeans, based on counter price for the northwest of Rio Grande do Sul. Verify the percentage variation in fertilizer prices based on list prices in the northwest region of Rio Grande do Sul, in relation to soybeans sold in the same location. The sales prices to final producers were transformed into average monthly prices. After preparing the averages, prices were deflated using the IPCA, using the month of January as a base, applying the monthly change index in relation to the base month. Once this phase occurred, the data obtained were organized into percentage variation of the period in relation to the initial period. For soybeans, the municipality of Ijuí-RS, used as a price base. Prices were organized into monthly averages, using the data obtained and taking their arithmetic average. Speculation and market movements such as those generated by the pandemic and war can impact the values of fertilizers and soybeans. The agricultural sector had an inflationary increase greater than the IPCA in the period. Among the fertilizers evaluated, Potassium Chloride was the one with the highest increase peak. Monoammonium Phosphate was the one with the lowest peak increase, however, it represented the lowest drop in values at the end of the period. Chlorinated urea represented the biggest drop at the end of the period. Soybeans had a smaller percentage increase than fertilizers. This smaller increase in fertilizers directly negatively impacted the agricultural sector.